highlight of the week

The scientific evidence indicates that moderate coffee consumption is statistically significantly associated with a reduced risk of developing type 2 diabetes. This has potentially important implications in light of the already high and increasing prevalence of this disease.

The association is well-documented in several different populations and shows a consistent dose response, i.e. lower risk at higher consumption levels. Drinking 3-4 cups of coffee per day is associated with an approximate 25% lower risk of developing type 2 diabetes, compared to consuming none or less than 2 cups per day. Every additional cup of coffee, up to 6-8 cups per day (regular or decaffeinated) is associated with a 5-10% lower risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Moderate coffee consumption is typically defined as 3-5 cups per day, based on the European Food Safety Authority’s review of caffeine safety.

The statistically significant association, in combination with the consistent dose response relationship, is a strong indication for a true association between moderate coffee consumption and the lower incidence of type 2 diabetes. What is still lacking is a plausible mechanism to explain this association. There is no clear consensus on a potential mechanism, although observations of beneficial effects of coffee consumption on some markers of subclinical inflammation are promising.

The association between coffee/caffeine consumption and diabetes is specific to type 2 diabetes only. For more information on the difference between type 1 and type 2 diabetes, please refer to the media facts and figures section.
Type 2 diabetes is the most common type of diabetes. It usually occurs in adults, but is increasingly seen in children and adolescents. In type 2 diabetes, there is a combination of inadequate production of insulin and an inability of the body to respond fully to insulin (insulin resistance). Being overweight is a main cause of type 2 diabetes, which is also influenced by lifestyle factors such as poor diet, lack of physical activity, and excessive alcohol consumption.

 

In 2015, it was estimated that 415 million adults around the world were living with diabetes (types 1 and 2 collectively). This number is predicted to increase to 642 million by 2040¹. In Europe, about 60 million people have diabetes, or about 10.3% of men and 9.6% of women aged 25 years and over¹. It is estimated that this figure will reach 71 million by 2040².

In Europe, diabetes caused 627,000 deaths in 2015: about one quarter (26.3%) of those deaths were in people under the age of 60. Estimates indicate that diabetes was responsible for 9% of total health expenditure in Europe in 2015, equivalent to USD 156 billion¹.

Age is an important risk factor for type 2 diabetes. In Europe, 30.8% of the general population were aged between 50 and 79 in 2015, and this percentage is expected to increase to 35.6% by 2040¹. To a large degree, the high prevalence of type 2 diabetes and impaired glucose tolerance are a consequence of the ageing of Europe’s population. However, diabetes is now increasingly affecting adolescents and children and the highest increase is in the 30-40 year old age group³.

The twin epidemics of obesity and diabetes already represent the biggest public health challenge of the 21st century. It is estimated that at least half of all diabetes cases would be eliminated if weight gain in adults could be prevented⁴.